MODEL FOR ESTIMATING AND FORECASTING THE PROFITABILITY OF SHIPS OVER LONG SHIPPING CYCLES

Abstract

Abstract: The model for assessing and forecasting the profitability of ships over long shipping cycles is built from two groups of activities:

- research of the demand and supply of the freight market - market research;

- researching changes in the state of the freight market and developing a strategy for managing the commercial and technical activities of the fleet under different future conditions.

In the first part of the model, the equations of the processes of change over the studied cycle of all indicators affecting the efficiency of the fleet in general and by segments (for liquid, bulk and container cargoes) were obtained. The tasks were solved using classical statistical methods on a proprietary database.

In the second part of the model, the tasks of assessing and forecasting the profitability of the fleet (in general and by segments) for three periods are solved: pre-crisis (2000-2008), economic crisis (2009 - 2015) and post-crisis recovery (2016-2020 - 2030-forecast).

Results:

The estimates and forecasts of the profit rate during the studied shipping cycle show that in 2009 unfavorable economic conditions occurred for those offering maritime transport conditions, which led to negative and non-recoverable values ​​of all studied indicators. The attractive prospects for future income after 2008 have determined the implementation of massive investments for the acquisition of new ships, which led to an increase in the "supply and demand" ratio and a deterioration in the general economic indicators. In this article and in a series of our previous developments, recommendations have been made on ways to promptly detect and implement specific management decisions.