MODEL FOR ASSESSING AND FORECASTING THE EFFICIENCY OF SHIPPING AND FREIGHT PRICE MANAGEMENT IN CONDITIONS OF INSTABILITY
Keywords:
world gross product, seaborne trade, average shipping distance, assessment and forecasts of seaborne demand and supply, shipping cycle, merchant fleet productivity, freight indices for tanker, bulk and container tonnageAbstract
Summary: Three variants of freight price management models for merchant shipping are proposed, based on the technique known as the “balance of demand and supply” of transportation. In compiling the three variants (automated, humanitarian and prognostic) we proceed from the idea of assessing and forecasting the factors influencing demand and supply:
SEARCH: State and forecast of the level of the world economy; nomenclature and quantity of transported goods; average distance of transportation; transport costs; impact of shocks and cataclysms;
SUPPLY: Volume of the world fleet; productivity of the fleet; purchase and scrapping of ships; freight revenues.
The models have been tested on data for three stages: pre-crisis (2000-2008), financial crisis (2009-2014) and recovery in estimates and forecasts (2015-2026).
Results and forecasts have been obtained for the governing impacts (fleet capacity), for the influence of the imbalance between supply and demand on freight prices and for the functioning of the management system.
